Bootjack, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

932
FXUS66 KEKA 192227
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
327 PM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Thick smoke remains stuck around the Hoopa Valley stretching from
  as far north as to Orleans as far south as Burnt Ranch. Weak
  transport winds will keep smoke here through the week.

* Interior temperatures peaking Tuesday will ease through the week
  with persistent marine influence along shore.

* Another trough is expected to bring below normal temperatures and
  very slight potential for a isolated thunderstorms Friday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures will ease through the week thanks to
increasing marine influence. Marine clouds will persistent along
shore with some slightly better clearing chances late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure hung on a bit longer than initially
forecast with the warmest interior valleys again grazing 100 today.
Besides a thin and slow to recede marine layer near shore, clear
skies and gentle west winds have persisted. Smoke has continued to
sock in valleys around the MP18 fire in Hoopa with smoke pushing up
the Trinity River with afternoon terrain winds.

An elongated trough will gradually approach shore through the end of
the week. This will help push marine influence further inland and
weaken high pressure, allowing interior highs to pull back into the
upper 80s by late in the week. Increasing marine influence will most
likely help strengthen and deepen the marine layer along shore. A
deeper and slightly more unstable marine layer may allow for better
scattering in the late afternoons. The trough will certainly bring a
string of high clouds across the area around Friday, helping
reinforce cooler temperatures. There is potential for very isolated,
weak thunderstorms along the trough Friday, but instability appears
lacking in all models. Although there will be gusty southerly winds
aloft, no model shows them mixing to the surface where weak north
and west winds will persist. Most long range models show high
pressure then at least briefly rebuilding this weekend. /JHW


&&

.AVIATION...A thin but persistent marine layer has brought sporadic
IFR conditions to coastal terminals throughout the day today, though
visibilities were generally improved compared to previous days. Some
sporadic VFR clearing will remain through the early evening, with
mist and stratus resurging around sunset. IFR conditions are most
likely (80% chance) by 9 pm before very slowly lifting again during
the day Thursday. Otherwise, VFR conditions have persisted across
the interior except where thick smoke has socked in valleys around
the MP18 fire in Hoopa. /JHW

&

.MARINE...Moderate north winds in the outer waters have just started
to begin easing today. Though some stronger winds will remain in the
southern waters, few gusts over 20 kts are expected in the northern
out waters by late tonight. Steep short period seas will remain in
the outer waters through early Thursday, before calming
significantly through the day. Beyond short period seas, a very
minor 2 foot, mid period southerly swell and a mid period, 2 foot,
westerly swell are augmenting the sea state. North winds gradually
ease through the week with particularly calm conditions in the
northern waters by Friday. /JHW


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry weather held on for one more day longer
than initially forecast with the hottest valleys reaching near 100 F
and some RH values in the upper teens. Thermal belts, however, are
expected to begin weakening tonight, slightly improving poor mid and
upper slope recoveries. Winds remain weak and terrain driven.
Conditions will generally ease through the end of the week with
increasing marine influence. Weak transport wind will continue to
allow smoke accumulation around the MP18 fire in Hoop and up the
Trinity River Valley, creating some extra, localized moderation of
conditions.

The greatest forecast challenge remains thunderstorm potential
around Friday. There is high ensemble confidence that a strong stream
of midlevel tropical moisture will push across the area from the
southwest early Friday morning and through the day. At the same
time, a strong southerly jet forming offshore and aligning with
topography could provide and lift and enhance instability to allow
for thunderstorms. Even with this dynamic forcing, however, few
models are showing any instability. A couple of high resolution
models today are showing areas of minor MU CAPE less than 100 J/Kg.
Soundings reveal very narrow areas of mixing into the freezing layer
that will make lightning formation unlikely. There remains a very
slight (5-10%) chance of lightning in northern Trinity and eastern
Humboldt Counties Friday morning and afternoon, but coverage would
be sporadic and very isolated. Any lightning that does occur will be
dry, increasing fire risk. This forecast could quickly change if a
source of instability materializes. /JHW

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT Thursday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png